The paper addresses the problem of balancing residential development and social infrastructure in a suburban rural settlement experiencing increasing demographic and planning pressure due to its proximity to a major urban center. The study focuses on Michurinskoye rural settlement in Dinskoy District, Krasnodar Krai, which includes five inhabited localities and is located within the suburban influence zone of Krasnodar. The aim of the study is to develop a calculation model that makes it possible to compare the pace of residential load growth with the actual and normative provision of social infrastructure at the level of individual localities. The methodological framework is based on territorial planning documents, local urban planning standards, housing stock data, projected population figures, and the existing service network. The assessment uses demand coefficients for preschool places, school capacity, primary healthcare points, indoor sports halls, and outdoor sports grounds. Based on these indicators, provision coefficients and an integral balance index were calculated. The results show that with population growth from 6,790 to 10,125 residents, the most pronounced infrastructure gap emerges in preschool provision, school capacity, and outdoor sports facilities. The most vulnerable localities according to the integral index are Vishnyaki, Kochetinsky, and Yantarny. Scenario modeling was carried out for three development options: centralized, polycentric, and distributed. The distributed scenario demonstrated the highest integral index value, but taking into account construction and operational efficiency, the polycentric option proved to be the most rational. It involves strengthening the service nodes in Agronom and Zarozhdenie while providing selective local additions in peripheral settlements. The findings may be used for updating master plans, preparing territorial planning documentation, and justifying the phased placement of local service facilities.