Balancing residential growth and social infrastructure in suburban rural settlements: a scenario-based planning model

https://doi.org/10.58224/2618-7183-2026-9-3-9
The paper addresses the problem of balancing residential development and social infrastructure in a suburban rural settlement experiencing increasing demographic and planning pressure due to its proximity to a major urban center. The study focuses on Michurinskoye rural settlement in Dinskoy District, Krasnodar Krai, which includes five inhabited localities and is located within the suburban influence zone of Krasnodar. The aim of the study is to develop a calculation model that makes it possible to compare the pace of residential load growth with the actual and normative provision of social infrastructure at the level of individual localities. The methodological framework is based on territorial planning documents, local urban planning standards, housing stock data, projected population figures, and the existing service network. The assessment uses demand coefficients for preschool places, school capacity, primary healthcare points, indoor sports halls, and outdoor sports grounds. Based on these indicators, provision coefficients and an integral balance index were calculated. The results show that with population growth from 6,790 to 10,125 residents, the most pronounced infrastructure gap emerges in preschool provision, school capacity, and outdoor sports facilities. The most vulnerable localities according to the integral index are Vishnyaki, Kochetinsky, and Yantarny. Scenario modeling was carried out for three development options: centralized, polycentric, and distributed. The distributed scenario demonstrated the highest integral index value, but taking into account construction and operational efficiency, the polycentric option proved to be the most rational. It involves strengthening the service nodes in Agronom and Zarozhdenie while providing selective local additions in peripheral settlements. The findings may be used for updating master plans, preparing territorial planning documentation, and justifying the phased placement of local service facilities.
1. Alcaide Manthey N. The role of community-led social infrastructure in disadvantaged areas. Cities. 2024. 147. P. 104831. DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.104831
2. Bernard N., Traversa E. Having the private sector build social housing. Brussels Studies. 2022. 164. DOI: 10.4000/brussels.5890
3. Chen N., Yang H. From rural to urban: Clan, urbanization and trust. China Economic Review. 2024. 85. P. 102172. DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102172
4. Fayomi G.U., Onyari E.K., Mini S.E. Evaluating social housing potential for low-income urban dwellers in Johannesburg. Case Studies in Chemical and Environmental Engineering. 2024. 9. P. 100737. DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2024.100737
5. Gershon-Coneal O., Eizenberg E., Jabareen Y. The new urban neighbor: Residential large urban developments and urban social relations. Cities. 2024. 151. P. 105129. DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105129
6. Mansfield R.G. “They’ll be the ones that’s looking after it” – unravelling institutional factors that shape children’s participation in urban planning for informal settlements. Children’s Geographies. 2023. 21 (5). P. 944 – 960. DOI: 10.1080/14733285.2022.2159331
7. No W., Choi J., Kim Y. Children’s walking to urban services: an analysis of pedestrian access to social infrastructures and its relationship with land use. International Journal of Geographical Information Science. 2023. 37 (1). P. 189 – 214. DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2022.2104455
8. O’leary K. Effects of urban versus rural living on child development. Nature Medicine. 2023. DOI: 10.1038/d41591-023-00034-6
9. Truong S., Gray T., Ward K. Enhancing urban nature and place-making in social housing through community gardening. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening. 2022. 72. P. 127586. DOI: 10.1016/j.ufug.2022.127586
10. Yan F., Lei W., Li N. The impact modelling of urban and rural land planning and development on the ecological environment around the city. International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management. 2023. 26 (3/4/5). P. 189. DOI: 10.1504/IJETM.2023.130789
11. Zollet S., Qu M. Revitalising rural areas through counterurbanisation: Community-oriented policies for the settlement of urban newcomers. Habitat International. 2024. 145. P. 103022. DOI: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2024.103022
12. Gumenyuk I.S. Typology of rural settlements of the Kaliningrad region according to the degree of provision with social infrastructure facilities. Economics of Agriculture of Russia. 2024. (6). P. 91 – 99. DOI: 10.32651/246-91
13. Evsyukova T.G., Simanovskiy N.A. Social infrastructure of rural territories: current state and development prospects. Economy, labor, management in agriculture. 2025. 8 (126). P. 213 – 221. DOI: 10.33938/258-213.
14. Krasheninnikov A.V., Krylasova E.A. Urban-planning aspects of social connectivity. Academia. Architecture.and Construction. 2024. (3). P. 96 – 100. DOI: 10.22337/2077-9038-2024-3-96-100.
15. Semenova E.I., Simonov S.Yu., Semenov A.V. Planning the development of social infrastructure in rural areas. AIC: economics, management. 2022. (12). P. 84 – 89. DOI: 10.33305/2212-84.
16. Skal’naya M.M. Mechanisms of targeted social protection of various social groups of poor rural population. Economics of Agriculture of Russia. 2023. (7). P. 121 – 128. DOI: 10.32651/237-121
17. Guo C., Zhou W., Jing C., Zhaxi D. Mapping and measuring urban-rural inequalities in accessibility to social infrastructures. Geography and Sustainability. 2024. 5 (1). P. 41 – 51. DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2023.11.004
18. Enneking G., Custers G., Engbersen G. The rapid rise of social infrastructure: Mapping the concept through a systematic scoping review. Cities. 2025. 158. P. 105608. DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105608
19. Yang H., Wu R., Qiu B., Zhang Z., Hu T., Zou J., Wang H. The next step in suburban rural revitalization: Integrated whole-process landscape management linking ecosystem services and landscape characteristics. Ecological Indicators. 2024. 162. P. 111999. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111999
20. Wang J., Kwan M.-P., Liu D., Liu Y., Wang Y. 15-minute city beyond the urban core: Lessons from the urban-suburban disparity in PCR accessibility within the X-minute framework. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2025. 198. P. 104546. DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104546
21. Tsigdinos S., Kourounioti O. Connectivity or proximity planning in rural areas? Accessibility and equity insights from Crete, Greece. Journal of Rural Studies. 2026. 121. P. 103928. DOI: 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103928
22. [22] Brunet Johansson A., Carson D.B., Carson D.A. Local government planning for community sustainability in municipal peripheries: insights from the inland north of Sweden. Planning Practice & Research. 2025. DOI: 10.1080/02697459.2025.2594479
23. Li H., Li M., Peng P., Ao Y., Liu Y., Martek I., Bahmani H. Rural residential choices: unravelling the nexus of accessibility and preferences. Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering. 2025. 24 (6). P. 5588 – 5600. DOI: 10.1080/13467581.2024.2407580
24. Huang C., Feng Y., Wei Y., Sun D., Li X., Zhong F. Assessing regional public service facility accessibility using multisource geospatial data: A case study of underdeveloped areas in China. Remote Sensing. 2024. 16 (2). P. 409. DOI: 10.3390/rs16020409
25. Cui C., Han Z., Liu F., Ma J., Wang H., Chen X. Improving service accessibility and equity for sustainable development goals without newly facilities by rural settlement reconstruction. Geography and Sustainability. 2025. 6 (1). P. 100215. DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.006
26. Mao Z., Zhu X., Zou Q., Jin W. How can digital villages improve basic public services delivery in rural areas? Evidence from 1840 counties in China. Agriculture. 2024. 14 (10). P. 1802. DOI: 10.3390/agriculture14101802
27. Gedminaitė-Raudonė Ž., Belhaj M. Rethinking accessibility: How universal design is shaping rural areas in Lithuania. Sustainability. 2025. 17 (18). P. 8311. DOI: 10.3390/su17188311
28. Šišak I., Lukić A. Provision and accessibility of services of general interest in functional urban regions: The case of Zagreb, Croatia. Land. 2025. 14 (5). P. 1127. DOI: 10.3390/land14051127
Kulikova E.S., Sulimin V.V., Shvedov V.V. Balancing residential growth and social infrastructure in suburban rural settlements: a scenario-based planning model. Construction Materials and Products. 2026. 9 (3). 9. https://doi.org/10.58224/2618-7183-2026-9-3-9